“The Wizard and The Prophet”, by Charles C. Mann was sitting on my bookshelf for a few years. It was not a type of book that I would pick up at first glance. Once I started, I could not stop. Remarkably written. A parallel story of two great scientists, trying to achieve the same outcome in completely opposing ways.
Who should read it? Are you interested in any of the following: science, technology, sociology, climate, farming, or philosophy? If so, absolutely! The interesting part is its broad rather than narrow appeal.
What is it about? Two scientists – Norman Borlaug (the wizard), and William Vogt (the prophet). Their mission: to solve world hunger! Two different visions for solving the problem. The wizard way — using technology and innovation to increase and optimise production (yield). The prophet way — consumption in harmony with nature, in an ecologically balanced way.
The book explores duality in a different way and does not treat them as right or wrong. Don’t we see it in our everyday lives? It explores the four elements: earth, water, fire and air and the two approaches and their impact.
Earth — One of the key elements, represented as soil which is necessary for food to grow. It is actually the nutrients in the soil, not the soil itself. And the nutrient they need the most is Nitrogen. Unfortunately, not directly from the air, which is abundant. The plants can absorb nitrogen only when it is fixed and easy to break up.
Borlaug and other scientists were busy exploring synthetic ways to feed nitrogen to soil. Some of us may remember from school chemistry lessons the Haber-Bosch process for creating ammonia. This was the beginning of the green revolution. With gains came the losses. Agriculture runoffs, fertilizers in the waterways that fed algae and microbes disturbing the delicate ecological balance.
“Without scientific progress, no amount of achievement in other directions can ensure our survival.”
Norman Borlaug
Vogt’s philosophy was feeding the soil with plant remains and animal excitements, creating a circulatory network. Organic farming has been practiced since the birth of agriculture. They also looked at creating different varieties of cereals that were not nutrient intensive. Companion planting was another approach.
“We must put the management of our population and our economy on a rational basis, and that means we must learn to live within our means, ecologically speaking.”
William Vogt
The book explores the tussle between organic and inorganic fertilizing methods since the early days. The fact is that soil needed to provide nutrients to plants, especially nitrogen. From a productive lens, no doubt the wizard approach seems to be the winner. However, from a wizard’s view it does not account for costs of overfertilization and ecological impact. Both are correct on their own terms.
Water — We all know that water is necessary for plant growth. Nearly 75% of earth’s surface is covered by water, and 97.5% of that is saltwater. Most of the freshwater is underground and not easily accessible. Civilizations have been built around accessible water sources. Mann puts it in the terms of hard and soft water, not the way we know the terms chemically.
The wizard’s way was the “hard” water, or the hard path. Centralised infrastructure to capture, deliver and treat water supplies. The hard path evolves around the central question of How can we get more water? Big dams, reservoirs, aqueducts, canals and infrastructure to move water around. The cost: diminishing water tables, dry rivers and lakes, and ecological imbalance. These are compensated by use restriction.
The soft path (coined by Amory Lovins) is the path of the prophets. It is about better use of existing supplies. It is about changing habits and attitude. It is about eliminating waste. It is about being smart about current water uses. It is about limits and values.
The conflict between wizards and prophets here is about increasing supply using technology (e.g. desalination projects such as Carlsbad Desalination Plant). Prophets believe in water recycling, stormwater and rainwater harvesting, leak prevention, reuse and controlled drilling. The three R’s – Reduce, Reuse and Recycle.
“Cut back! Cut back! is the prime commandment, because, without it, we can only be an infinitesimal fraction of what we are now.” – Vogt
Fire — We are living the times of unprecedented prosperity. Keeping a room hot or cold to our liking is a simple flick of switch. Globally, only 5% of the energy supply is renewable. A contrast is New Zealand where it is 87% as per this report.
The wizards and prophets disagree about energy as well. Wizards believe that in high tech centralised power plants using concentrated energy sources. The prophets are hopeful about small scale and distributed sources of energy. Solar, wind, geothermal and now tidal. It is only now the economics of renewable distributed energy are now getting better.
Air — There are still many believers who believe that Climate-change is not happening. Many started believing after COVID lockdowns in many places. Clean air, blue skies, a hugely improved Air Quality Index. The challenge with topics like climate change is that one cannot see the effect in near term. In geological scale of time, a few hundred years is nothing. In human sense of time, it is many generations away. Governments and families do no not plan for that.
Both wizards and prophets believe in the climate change. It is the approach towards the creating a better climate that is different. The wizards’ approach is to clean up the mess created by burning fossil fuel. An example is “carbon capture and storage“, where carbon dioxide is extracted and pumped underground. The other wizardly path is nuclear energy, which is mostly clean. The prophets’ approach by asking the question differently. Could natural systems be harnessed to suck carbon from air? Tree planting, afforestation not deforestation.
Vogt died believing that his efforts were futile, and humankind is on the path of self-destruction. He saw the human species as any other successful biological species. Many of his work went through a revival phase and the ideas are still in use.
“Man is a part of nature, and his war against nature is inevitably a war against himself.” – William Vogt
I studied about Green Revolution as a school kid. It was ground-breaking for India to develop a variety of rice. This variety is a cross between a short grained Japanese rice and a long grain Indian rice. I did not know that Borlaug had a role to play. He worked with the “father of green revolution in India”, M S Swaminathan. Borlaug was criticized by the environmentalists, and surprisingly, by elitists of the West. Some believed that the world was better off if people in poor areas didn’t improve their lives.
“The destiny of world civilization depends upon providing a decent standard of living for all mankind. The tide of social revolution sweeps across the world. The underprivileged and hungry nations are social powder kegs, and the fuse is burning.” – Norman Borlaug
Perspectives:
As a student of science and engineering, I had always explored the wizard approach. That is what the schools and universities were designed to teach. Over the years as I have explored the dualities of the world we live in. I have started to see and understand different views. It isn’t about the wizards OR the prophets. It is about the wizards AND prophets. It is not about who is right or wrong. It is about perspectives.
Sid Kumar 